The Iran Threat: An Assessment of the Middle East Nuclear Stalemate
This report critically examines the underlying assumptions and overarching methods behind the official narrative on the West-Iran nuclear stalemate, as exemplified for instance in numerous research studies by think-tanks and research groups specialising in defence and security issues. For the most part, these studies provide only partial insight into the implications of the available evidence on Iran’s nuclear programme. Asserting a lack of certainty on both Iranian capabilities and plans, these studies conclude that it is necessary and legitimate to assume the worst, in the face of Iranian intransigence and lack of cooperation. From this starting-point, they move on quickly to contrasting the inevitable pitfalls of diplomacy and military intervention. Part of this analysis includes surveying the potential regional implications and likelihood of success of the latter. Although varying in their overall verdict on the efficacy of a military strike on Iran, they nevertheless converge on the principle that Iran does indeed pose a significant potential threat to regional and international security requiring urgent concerted international action.
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