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Runaway Climate Change Boundary Conditions & Implications for Policy

July 1, 2009 No Comment

Published courtesy of David Wasdell and The Meridian Programme

It is almost exactly four years since my provisional analysis of the feedback dynamics of the global climate system indicated the existence of a threshold or tipping point beyond which the system exhibited runaway behaviour.  Since then the analysis has undergone a continuous and stringent process of attempted falsification.  It has withstood every serious challenge that I, or my colleagues in the scientific community, have been able to throw at it.  Understanding of the multiple, complex and interconnected feedback processes (both positive and negative) has increased dramatically during this period, and it now looks highly probable that the conditions for runaway climate change have already been met.  Once that boundary has been crossed, there is only a small window of opportunity open to the global community to re-stabilise the system.  Beyond that, it becomes impossible to halt and reverse the runaway condition.

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Copyright 2010 - Institute for Policy Research & Development

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